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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 32
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(2:47) 81-A.Bachman right end to WAS 35 for -3 yards (52-J.Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+2.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.03 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK
+1.30 EP
- 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
