4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 32

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right to 19-K.Golladay ran ob at WAS 25 for 7 yards (29-K.Fuller) [93-Jon.Allen].

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model