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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 50

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 35-J.Williams right tackle to NYG 39 for 11 yards (45-J.Smith, 51-A.Ojulari).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model