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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 37

Washington Commanders 22 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.65 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP