TB @ CAR — 4th & Data

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians

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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule

Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -11.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

65.2%

CAR

34.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR offense: -0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to TB: Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.132 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.149 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Sam Darnold in place of Cam Newton)
TB offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
CAR defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
TB defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24

–

CAR 19

Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring

Antoine Winfield S Out Foot

Jason Pierre-Paul LB Doubtful Shoulder

Jamel Dean CB Questionable Illness

Richard Sherman CB Questionable Achilles

CAR

Phil Hoskins DT Questionable Back

Cameron Erving T Questionable Calf

D.J. Moore WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 32

–

CAR 6

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:21 FG CAR (7:21) 3-L.Hajrullahu 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. TB 0 – CAR 3
Q1 04:24 TD TB (4:24) 21-K.Vaughn left tackle for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 3
Q2 10:58 FG TB (10:58) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 10 – CAR 3
Q2 07:25 FG CAR (7:25) 3-L.Hajrullahu 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. TB 10 – CAR 6
Q2 02:44 FG TB (2:44) 3-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 13 – CAR 6
Q2 01:22 TD TB (1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – CAR 6
Q3 08:39 FG TB (8:39) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 22 – CAR 6
Q3 02:13 TD TB (2:13) (Shotgun) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – CAR 6
Q4 08:04 FG TB (8:04) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter. TB 32 – CAR 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(12:31) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 45 yards to CAR 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 30 for 16 yards (48-G.Stuard).
Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(7:21) 3-L.Hajrullahu 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

(10:58) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.
Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

(7:25) 3-L.Hajrullahu 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%

(2:44) 3-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP

p(convert) 57%

(1:48) 10-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 31 for 4 yards (4-J.Carter).
Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(:44) 10-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner pushed ob at TB 17 for 9 yards (45-G.Ricci).
Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(12:43) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 46 for 20 yards (82-T.Tremble; 44-J.Jansen).
Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

(8:39) 3-R.Succop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.
Q3 CAR 4th & 20 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23%

(6:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to TB 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 43 for 6 yards (50-J.Stanford).
Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 24

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

(11:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 2-Dj.Moore.
Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(10:26) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 40 yards to CAR 36, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 42 for 6 yards (43-R.Cockrell). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 42.
Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 48

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 32%

(9:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at CAR 45 for -7 yards (51-K.Minter).
Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 77%

(8:04) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.
Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(7:00) 10-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 22 for 5 yards (50-J.Stanford).
Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 51 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%

(2:16) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CAR-34-S.Chandler, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 13.