Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 40 yards to CAR 36, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 42 for 6 yards (43-R.Cockrell). PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model