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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model