Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

(12:43) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 46 for 20 yards (82-T.Tremble; 44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model