4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model