4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 6

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 3-L.Hajrullahu 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model