4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-19-S.Hofrichter.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model