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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 19-S.Hofrichter punts 45 yards to CAR 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 30 for 16 yards (48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model