Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

(7:00) 10-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 38-K.Barner to TB 22 for 5 yards (50-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model