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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYG
28.7%
PHI
71.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) -0.004 vs Jake Fromm (NYG) -0.048 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Jake Fromm in place of Mike Glennon)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 17
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Ben Bredeson G Out Ankle
Gary Brightwell RB Out Neck
Collin Johnson WR Out Hamstring
Austin Johnson DT Questionable Foot
J.R. Reed S Questionable COVID Ramp Up
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Oblique
Oshane Ximines LB Questionable COVID Ramp Up

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 10
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:48 FG NYG (11:48) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG PHI (2:00) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NYG 3 – PHI 3
  • Q3 12:07 TD PHI (12:07) 35-B.Scott left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – PHI 9
  • Q3 07:52 FG PHI (7:52) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. NYG 3 – PHI 13
  • Q3 04:13 TD PHI (4:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 3 – PHI 19
  • Q4 11:45 TD PHI (11:45) 65-L.Johnson reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 65-L.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – PHI 26
  • Q4 10:29 TD PHI (10:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left intended for 89-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 49-A.Singleton (23-R.McLeod) at NYG 29. 49-A.Singleton for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – PHI 33
  • Q4 03:55 TD NYG (3:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 88-E.Engram for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to NYG 32, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-A.Chachere. PENALTY on PHI-21-A.Chachere, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 32.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for -4 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to NYG 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 41 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton, 89-J.Stoll).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 31%

    (7:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:30) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to NYG 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 49 for 13 yards (22-M.Epps).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 41%

    (3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 28 yards to PHI 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:31) 8-A.Siposs punts 51 yards to NYG 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%

    (11:48) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%

    (7:11) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PHI 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 40 for 14 yards (35-D.Dennard, 39-E.Penny).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 27%

    (:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PHI 40, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NYG 21 for 39 yards (28-D.Booker). NYG-36-C.Gillaspia was injured during the play.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (7:52) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to PHI 43, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to PHI 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 25 for 1 yard (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (6:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 89-K.Toney to PHI 43 for 4 yards (33-J.Scott). PENALTY on PHI-33-J.Scott, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 43.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 88-E.Engram to PHI 14 for 8 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 76%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle to NYG 30 for no gain (23-L.Ryan).