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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 36

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model