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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 13 at the 48
New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(7:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.27 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
KICK
-1.58 EP
- 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
