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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 8-A.Siposs punts 51 yards to NYG 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model