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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 50

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model