Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

(5:30) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to NYG 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 49 for 13 yards (22-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model