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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 47

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 89-K.Toney to PHI 43 for 4 yards (33-J.Scott). PENALTY on PHI-33-J.Scott, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model