4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PHI 40, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NYG 21 for 39 yards (28-D.Booker). NYG-36-C.Gillaspia was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model