Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

(10:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to NYG 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 41 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton, 89-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model