Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: -0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- TEN offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- TEN defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- PIT on 3 more days rest than TEN
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 15
TEN
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:44 TD TEN (7:44) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – PIT 0
- Q1 01:16 FG TEN (1:16) 14-R.Bullock 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 10 – PIT 0
- Q2 10:39 FG PIT (10:39) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 10 – PIT 3
- Q2 00:21 FG TEN (:21) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 13 – PIT 3
- Q3 03:11 TD PIT (3:11) 7-B.Roethlisberger up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – PIT 9
- Q4 13:27 FG PIT (13:27) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 13
- Q4 07:25 FG PIT (7:25) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 16
- Q4 04:34 FG PIT (4:34) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TEN 13 – PIT 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 27 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(11:29) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 35 for 17 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to PIT 35 for 55 yards (54-U.Gilbert). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to TEN 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(1:16) 14-R.Bullock 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 52%
(14:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%
(10:39) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(:21) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 23%
(11:36) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 23 for 11 yards (53-D.Cole).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 27 for no gain (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), and recovers at TEN 20.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(13:27) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%
(7:25) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%
(4:34) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 33 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%
(2:12) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 32 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 41-R.Spillane). Official measurement.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 16 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.61 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%
(:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 10 for 6 yards (23-J.Haden). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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