Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to PIT 35 for 55 yards (54-U.Gilbert). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.66 EP
59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model