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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 32 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 41-R.Spillane). Official measurement.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.86 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model