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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model