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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 14-R.Bullock 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP