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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model