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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model