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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 27 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model