Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 27 for no gain (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), and recovers at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.43 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model