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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model