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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Saturday 2021-12-18 · 20:20 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NE
46.0%
IND
54.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.244 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Ronnie Perkins LB Out Ankle
David Andrews C Questionable Shoulder
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Illness
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Hamstring
Adrian Phillips S Questionable Knee

IND

Antwaun Woods DT Out Calf
Grover Stewart DT Questionable Illness
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Knee Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:00 TD IND (4:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 28-J.Taylor. 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 21-N.Hines for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 00:21 TD IND (:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 04:34 FG IND (4:34) 6-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. NE 0 – IND 17
  • Q3 11:54 FG IND (11:54) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. NE 0 – IND 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – IND 20
  • Q4 09:00 FG NE (9:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – IND 20
  • Q4 02:25 TD NE (2:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – IND 20
  • Q4 02:11 TD IND (2:11) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – IND 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (14:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NE 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 22 for 1 yard (30-G.Odum). FUMBLES (30-G.Odum), ball out of bounds at NE 22.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to IND 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:13) 69-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz up the middle to IND 45 for 1 yard (53-K.Van Noy).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (4:34) 6-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%

    (11:54) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 27%

    (8:17) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 15-N.Agholor.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%

    (6:33) 2-C.Wentz left guard to NE 36 for 2 yards (41-M.Bryant; 53-K.Van Noy).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (4:38) 6-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (11:14) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to IND 22 for 10 yards (42-A.Sendejo).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (9:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:38) 2-C.Wentz left guard to IND 44 for 1 yard (54-D.Hightower; 90-C.Barmore).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to NE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 80-G.Olszewski (26-R.Ya-Sin).