Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New England Patriots 10

(3:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to NE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.95 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model