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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 6-M.Badgley 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model