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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 32

New England Patriots 7 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to IND 22 for 10 yards (42-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model