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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 20 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 2-C.Wentz left guard to NE 36 for 2 yards (41-M.Bryant; 53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model