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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model