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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 69

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to IND 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model