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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 69-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz up the middle to IND 45 for 1 yard (53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model