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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 53

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 15-N.Agholor.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model