4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 68

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:21) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 49-M.Adams, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at NE -8. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model