CLE @ BAL — 4th & Data

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Baltimore Ravens

8-3 HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2021-11-28 · 20:20 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE

45.9%

BAL

54.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

BAL offense: +0.009 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
CLE defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21 14–28

–

BAL 24 17–31

Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

Anthony Schwartz WR Out Concussion

Jack Conklin T Questionable Elbow

Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Calf

Troy Hill CB Questionable Neck

Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Questionable Groin

BAL

Miles Boykin WR Out Finger

Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Thigh

Ar'Darius Washington S Out Foot

Nick Boyle TE Questionable Not injury related - resting player

Calais Campbell DE Questionable Concussion

Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Neck

Brandon Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

Patrick Mekari G Questionable Ankle

Anthony Averett CB Questionable Thigh

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Thigh

Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Hip

Chris Westry CB Questionable Thigh

Tavon Young CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10

–

BAL 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 00:29 FG BAL (:29) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 3
Q2 03:56 FG BAL (3:56) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 6
Q2 01:07 FG CLE (1:07) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – BAL 6
Q3 09:56 TD BAL (9:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 12
Q3 00:43 TD CLE (:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 9 – BAL 13
Q4 01:15 FG BAL (1:15) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 10 – BAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

(11:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 27%

(8:03) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(4:12) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to BAL 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (51-Ma.Wilson).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%

(:29) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(12:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 35 for 22 yards (7-J.Gillan).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 56

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(10:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 45 for 1 yard (95-M.Garrett; 28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(3:56) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

(1:07) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 44%

(8:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

(3:18) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(8:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 14 for 1 yard (38-A.Green).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(7:36) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -3 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(6:34) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 31 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

(1:15) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 32 for 7 yards (54-T.Bowser).
See the full breakdown →

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