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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE
42.0%
BAL
58.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.087 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Lamar Jackson in place of Tyler Huntley)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

Anthony Schwartz WR Out Concussion
Jack Conklin T Questionable Elbow
Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Calf
Troy Hill CB Questionable Neck
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Questionable Groin

BAL

Miles Boykin WR Out Finger
Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Thigh
Ar'Darius Washington S Out Foot
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Calais Campbell DE Questionable Concussion
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Neck
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Shoulder
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Ankle
Anthony Averett CB Questionable Thigh
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Thigh
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Hip
Chris Westry CB Questionable Thigh
Tavon Young CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
BAL 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:29 FG BAL (:29) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 03:56 FG BAL (3:56) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 01:07 FG CLE (1:07) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – BAL 6
  • Q3 09:56 TD BAL (9:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BAL 12
  • Q3 00:43 TD CLE (:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 9 – BAL 13
  • Q4 01:15 FG BAL (1:15) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 10 – BAL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (11:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 27%

    (8:03) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:12) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to BAL 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 25 for 13 yards (51-Ma.Wilson).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%

    (:29) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 35 for 22 yards (7-J.Gillan).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 45 for 1 yard (95-M.Garrett; 28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (3:56) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (1:07) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to BAL 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

    (3:18) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 14 for 1 yard (38-A.Green).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:36) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -3 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:34) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

    (1:15) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 32 for 7 yards (54-T.Bowser).