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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to BAL 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP