Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 10

(7:36) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -3 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model