4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:29) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model