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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 6, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model