4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model