Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(8:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 14 for 1 yard (38-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model