Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(6:34) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.63 EP
54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model